By Hernan Nessi
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Economic activity in Argentina likely fell again in November versus the same month a year earlier, but less than the 0.7% contraction in October, a Reuters poll of market analysts on Wednesday showed.
The median forecast from 13 analysts sees economic activity shrinking 0.6% year-on-year in November, the sixth consecutive year-on-year contraction, if confirmed by officials.
Poll estimates ranged from a 3.2% contraction to 1.6% growth.
The slight improvement was driven by the key agricultural sector, analysts said, while construction continued to fare poorly.
Despite the anticipated contraction, analysts were optimistic about growth expectations for December.
“Activity comes with positive prospects for the closing of a difficult year, which saw a sharp decline and a rapid rebound, although uneven among the sectors,” said consulting firm Orlando Ferreres & Asociados.
“In 2025 we hope that the most lethargic sectors will improve, and return to economic growth, with a more uniform course of activity.”
South America’s second-biggest economy has suffered a prolonged slump, marked by one of the world’s highest rates of inflation, and only recently showed signs of clawing its way out of recession.
Earlier this month, analysts surveyed by the country’s central bank expected economic growth around 1% through the first half of 2025, speeding up to an annualized rate of 4.5% by the end of the year.
Argentina’s INDEC statistics agency is scheduled to publish economic activity data for November on Thursday afternoon (1900 GMT).