By Cynthia Kim and Jihoon Lee
SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly left its policy interest rate unchanged on Thursday, weighing the impact of its back-to-back cuts last year while supporting the won which weakened to a 15-year low versus the U.S. dollar in recent weeks.
The Bank of Korea held its benchmark interest rate at 3.00% at its monetary policy review, an outcome expected by only seven of 34 economists polled by Reuters. The remaining 27 had expected the bank to cut the rate by 25 basis points.
The decision is the first since impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s attempt to impose martial law in early December threw Asia’s fourth-largest economy into its biggest political crisis in decades. The turmoil prompted the government to cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.2%.
The crash of Jeju Air flight 7C2216, which killed 179 people in the deadliest air disaster on South Korean soil, has also weighed on the economy.
On top of that, the won’s slide has been a major concern among policymakers. In the final three months of 2024, the currency weakened 10.6% against the dollar, the biggest quarterly drop since the third quarter of 2008.
Local currency dealers said South Korea has been relying on smoothing operations in the onshore dollar-won market as well as the National Pension Service’s currency hedging operations to support the won.
“(Thursday’s rate decision) would be due to its (the BOK’s) greater focus on economic and financial stability concerns, until political uncertainty eases. Instead of January, we expect the BOK to cut the policy rate again at its February meeting, after it revises its economic outlook.” said Park Jeong-Woo, an analyst at Nomura Securities who was one of the seven analysts who correctly predicted the rate decision.
Analysts now see the central bank eying a more gradual pace of interest rate reduction in the year ahead.
Median forecasts in the survey showed one interest rate cut of 25 basis points this quarter and cuts of the same degree in both the second and third quarters taking the rate to 2.25%.
Market focus now switches to Governor Rhee Chang-yong’s press conference at 0210 GMT, where the names of any dissenters to the policy decision could be announced. Dissenting votes typically lead to policy changes in subsequent months.