Investing.com — In Germany, the latest opinion polls reveal that the center-right CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, is currently leading in the German elections with 33% of the vote.
The far-right AfD is in second place with 18%, followed by the Social Democrats at 16%. The Greens and the far-left BSW are trailing behind with 13% and 6% respectively.
The liberal FDP is polling at 4%, suggesting a potential failure to cross the required 5% threshold, which could result in them not being represented in the next Bundestag.
These opinion polls align with the UBS Evidence Lab Political Probability Monitor, a tool that tracks implied probabilities based on betting odds from leading bookmakers.
The monitor currently shows an 86% probability of the CDU/CSU winning the most seats, followed by AfD at 15% and SPD at 11%.
It’s worth noting that in 2021, the polls saw significant shifts in the two months leading up to the election. In July 2021, the SPD was trailing the CDU/CSU by a similar margin as present (15% and 30%, respectively).
However, on the election day, the SPD managed to secure a win with 25% of the votes, surpassing the CDU/CSU who secured 22%.
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