(Reuters) – Major brokerages, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Goldman Sachs, have reiterated their expectation of a quarter-point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, ahead of key consumer price index (CPI) data due later on Wednesday.
Economists polled by Reuters expect headline inflation to increase 0.3% in November on a monthly basis, taking the annual rate to 2.7% from 2.6% in October. The CPI data is the last piece of crucial economic data to be released ahead of the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting due on Dec. 17-18.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages before the CPI data:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Brokerages Dec’2024 2025 Fed Funds Rate
BofA Global 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
Research June)
Barclays (LON:BARC) 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
2025)
Macquarie 25
25 4.00%-4.25%
Goldman Sachs 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
(through September 2025)
September
2025)
J.P.Morgan 25 75(throug 3.75% (through
h September 2025)
September
2025)
*UBS Global 25 125 3.00%-3.25% (through
Research end of 2025)
TD Securities 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Morgan Stanley 25 100 3.375% (Q4 2025)
(through
June
2025)
Jefferies 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Nomura – 50 4.125% (through end
of 2025)
*UBS Global Wealth 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
Management end of 2025)
Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) 25 No Rate 4.375%
Cuts
Citigroup (NYSE:C) –
25 3.00%-3.25% (H1
2025)
Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 25 – –
HSBC
25 100 3.25%-3.50%
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group