By Michael S. Derby
(Reuters) – U.S. consumers were bracing last month for higher levels of inflation in coming years even as they marked up expectations that their personal financial situations would improve markedly, the New York Federal Reserve reported on Monday.
Respondents to the regional Fed bank’s survey of consumer expectations in November see inflation a year from now at 3%, versus the 2.9% expected in October, while inflation in three years is seen at 2.6%, compared to 2.5% in the previous month. Inflation five years from is expected to be 2.9%, compared to 2.8% in October.
The New York Fed noted educational levels affected the view on future inflation, saying “the overall increase in one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations masks a decline among those without a college degree and an increase among those with a college degree.”
The projected rise in inflation contrasted with expectations that gasoline prices, rent and food costs will all come in weaker a year from now, even as the costs of medical care and college are seen mounting bigger gains. Meanwhile, the expected rise in home prices held steady at 3% in November.
The survey was released at a time of considerable expected change in the path of the economy tied to President-elect Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House. Trump is widely expected to pursue policies that increase price pressures through his promise of large tariffs on U.S. trading partners and deportations of immigrants. His tax and spending plans are also expected to push up deficits by a sizable amount.
The Fed is widely expected to cut its benchmark overnight interest by a quarter of a percentage point at its Dec. 17-18 policy meeting, with much less certainty about what comes after that, given the unpredictability of Trump’s policy agenda and stickier-than-expected inflation pressures.
The New York Fed survey, which was conducted throughout November, found optimism over the future of the economy. Respondents projected better income and earnings growth, although their outlook on the job market softened a bit.
While households’ view of their current financial situation was stable and their sense of access to credit little changed, year-ahead expectations of those respondents who see a better financial situation jumped to the highest level since February 2020. Meanwhile, the share of those who expect to be worse off ebbed to the lowest level since March 2021. Households also put lower prospects on missing debt payments.
Although economists expect Trump will drive deficits higher, respondents in the New York Fed survey cut their forecasts of the growth in government debt to the lowest reading since February 2020. Households also predicted a rising probability that interest rates on savings accounts will be higher in a year, which contrasts with an expected path of Fed policy that points to lower interest rates.