Investing.com — Investor spirits remain bright as the S&P 500 boasts a 28% year-to-date return, but UBS analysts caution that claims of market froth are premature.
In a note Monday, the bank said that “isolated signs of market frothiness” are evident in areas like crypto prices and leveraged ETFs. However, broader market exuberance, a hallmark of frothy conditions, are said to remain elusive.
Consumer and business sentiment indicators, key drivers of investor euphoria, are notably subdued compared to prior cycles, according to UBS.
“High inflation and the affordability crisis are challenging for many consumers,” UBS explained, adding that businesses face headwinds from elevated input and financing costs.
They note that these factors make it difficult for market sentiment to reach levels seen in past bull markets, with improvement unlikely until at least 2026.
UBS adds that investor positioning and market activity further counter claims of froth, noting that the American Association of Individual Investors’ (AAII) bulls-to-bears ratio hit a six-month low, while hedge fund positioning remains moderate.
Additionally, the VIX index, at 13.5, is relatively stable, and M&A and IPO activity, typically indicative of market exuberance, remains muted.
UBS says corporate confidence is lukewarm, with deal activity below historical averages.
While AI narratives have captured attention, speculative fervor has yet to materialize, according to the bank. UBS highlighted that while AI giants like NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) generate strong earnings, speculative tech stocks remain far below their pandemic peaks.
“True market euphoria will return only once investors again begin to create narratives to justify extreme valuations for the most speculative companies,” UBS stated.
UBS expects the market to grind higher in 2025, driven by fundamentals rather than speculation, projecting the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by December.
“Expect bouts of volatility and corrections similar to 2024 due to concerns about economic fundamentals, not investor euphoria popping,” concluded the bank.