Investing.com — Republicans are looking increasingly likely to retain control of the House of Representatives, clinching a potential “clean sweep” after regaining the Senate and the White House, but while a ‘red wave’ likely washes away the need for more rate cuts, the potential fiscal boost is likely to keep the U.S. economy flexing its muscles.
“A Republican clean sweep will lead to easier U.S. fiscal policy, which should mean fewer rate cuts by the Fed,” strategists from Alpine Macro (BCBA:BMAm) led by Harvinder Kalirai said in a recent note.
The post-election bond market reaction has left some scratching their heads as yields on Treasuries moved higher.
While some on Wall Street have interpreted this move as potential loss of investor confidence, the strategists believe it’s quite the opposite.
“Yields are rising on stronger U.S. growth expectations,” they said. Higher Treasury yields are a “reflection of stronger growth expectations, which are attracting more capital inflows and pushing up the dollar.”
A Republican clean sweep would likely put Trump in a “stronger position to push his economic policies forward,” they said.
“At minimum, it would mean that the 2018 tax cuts that are scheduled to expire at the end of next year will be extended,” they added.
Against the backdrop of a stronger economy and less easing by the Fed, the steady state for 10-year Treasuries could be near 4.5%, assuming a nominal R-star, or neutral rate of 4%, and term premium of around 50 basis points, souring investor appetite to increase duration, or bet on stronger bond prices.
In FX, the strategists are now shifting their long USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD positions from against the dollar to the euro.
“All three central banks should be less dovish than the ECB,” they added.