A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
It’s been a wild ride in markets with the dollar and Wall Street futures surging while Treasuries took a beating as early results in the presidential election favoured Republican Donald Trump.
Several key battleground states were still to be called, but betting sites heavily favoured Trump and the NY Times real-time forecast projected a 91% chance of him winning.
Analysts generally assume Trump’s plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and sweeping tariffs if enacted would put more upward pressure on inflation and bond yields than would Harris’ centre-left policies.
Trump’s proposals would also tend to push up the dollar and potentially limit how far U.S. interest rates might ultimately be lowered.
Thus while markets were still confident the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, futures for next year eased into the red with December down 8 ticks.
The risk of a higher terminal Fed funds rate combined with the prospect of ever-larger budget deficits to hammer Treasuries, sending 10-year yields to four-month highs and two-year yields to a three-month top. Ten-year yields were last up 17 basis points at 4.449%, the sharpest rise since April. [US/]
The jump in yields fuelled bullish bets on the dollar, which boasted its biggest daily gain since early last year. The euro, yen and Swiss franc all sank more than 1%, while the trade-exposed Australian and New Zealand dollars dived to three-month lows. [USD/]
China’s yuan also took a tumble on fears Trump would follow through on plans to impose punishing tariffs on Chinese goods.
Wall Street looked forward to promised tax cuts and less corporate regulation, with S&P 500 futures up 1.2% and Nasdaq gaining 1.3%.
European stock futures were less enthused as Trump’s tariff policies, if enacted, could ignite a global trade war and threaten EU exports.
There was also the risk Trump could pull out of NATO, forcing Europe to spend more on defence, while emboldening Russia in its territorial ambitions.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
– EZ services PMIs for Oct, producer prices for Sept
– German industrial orders for Sept
– US services PMI for Oct
(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann)